Abstract

It is necessary to have the knowledge of places and a logical, strategic, and practical view toward their future. Since spatial developmentson a macro-scale in political, environmental, physical, social, and cultural dimensions can have different influences in a long-term perspective, the present study was carried out in accordance with the world’s effective approaches and the current situation of Iran and the region. The aim of the present study was to examine the primary factors affecting the promotion of tourism level in the border town of Piranshahr. In this regard, the present study was a descriptive-analytical investigation including a questionnaire which was conducted within Delphi model framework and software analyses. Afterwards, following dialog and consultation with the elites and academicians in the form of a research panel on urban issues, 40 individuals were chosen as the statistical population, and 39 variables were identified as the study’s primary variables in the form of 8 general categories. For the working process of the primary variables, crossover influences were described within a matrix framework in futures study MICMAC Software. Afterwards, the statistical population was required to use the level of influence –direct, indirect, or potential dependence –in order to evaluate the variables in the range from 0 (no influence) to 3 (very strong influence). The results of 2 repeats of data rotation indicated that the fit index of the obtained model was 96.52%, which shows the high level of influence of the variables on one another. Moreover, based on the results of the present study, the index of strategic situation of the townand being located on the border (R) with a score of 114 had the strongest level of direct influence. Finally, by taking into account the recognized key driving forces, desirable, middle, and disastrous scenarios were proposed.