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Hossein Asakereh

حسين عساكره
 بررسي احتمال تواتر و تداوم روزهاي باراني در شهر تبريز با استفاده از مدل زنجيره ماركوف
Analysis of the Frequency and the Spell of Rainy Days Using Markove Chain Model for City of Tabriz, Iran
Abstract


Abstract In this paper the frequency and the spell of rainy days is analyzed for the city of Tabriz in northwestern Iran. This is done based on probability rule, stochastic process, and Markov Chain technique. The 55 year rain data (1951-2005) for Tabriz synoptic station is used. The frequency matrix is formed and the probability matrix of rainy – dry days is created accordingly based on maximum likelihood method. Recurrence interval is estimated based on persistence probability calculated based on succeed power on probability matrix. Rainy and dry days have 5- and 1-year return period (e.g. probability of 0.2206 and 0.7794), respectively. Finally the 1-5 day rain spell have calculated. The most probabable spell length occurred in spring (mainly in May). For example, a 2-day rain in May would occure with a return period of 2.5 days. Keywords: Rainy Day, Markov Chain, Occurance Probability, Maximum likelihood, Tabriz City

 

 

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